Foreigners will demand stable fiscal and monetary policies
The long-awaited inclusion of Indian government debt in JP Morgan’sbenchmark index for emerging market sovereign bonds should prove a watershed event,
turbocharged by investors’ need to find alternatives to China.
Gold is outperforming US treasuries.
GLD/TLT ratio is putting a new all time high. Taking all things in account, GOLD has held up relatively well
- Russell Clark
Bond market is becoming increasingly nervous.
The chart is of MOVE index which is equivalent of VIX but for bonds.
The MOVE @ 140 implies a yield change of ~9bp a day for the next month, that is not sustainable; similar to the VIX near 50, or ~3.1% a day for a month.
- Convexity Maven
Finally, more concrete signs of recession.
We believe that inverted curve is not the real leading indicator of recession. It is the steepening of curve after the inversion which is a sign of impending recession
Roadmap is clear.
Simple thesis profound implications
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