Something To Keep An Eye On
Chinese stocks now make up 24.7% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index by capitalization, down from 40% three years ago and about the same as late 2015 after the devaluation of the renminbi that August. China remains the biggest single country by market cap in the index, but India’s share has about doubled since 2020.
Volatility - Long
Should a market correction occur, we can anticipate a resurgence in volatility. This would be due largely to the impact of high yields on the economy, which typically has a two-year delay. If historical patterns are any indication, the year 2024 could be marked by significant volatility.
China Moving Up The Value Chain - Good News For Indian Manufacturing
Chinese manufacturing has moved up the value chain. This might not be good news for China because it could increase the risk of trade war.
Soft Landing Is A Consensus…
Soft landing becoming the consensus as the Fed pauses are totally normal.
The job market (initial claims) will determine the path from here; so far #jobmarket is holding up.
India Building Boom
India moving from Digital Infra to Physical Infra build. Digital Infra allowed India to leapfrog Manufacturing directly to Services, and created an IT and Services boom. With Physical Infra push, India is headed for a Manufacturing boom.
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