Pinetree Macro Charts 23 Mar 2024

Markets Are Realizing This

Since 1800, 51/52 countries had Gross, Government Debt >130%.

Their fate was one or more of the following:

  • Massive debt restructuring;
  • Currency devaluation;
  • Higher inflation;
  • Outright Default

Will History Repeat?

Source: FRED, Pinetree Calculations

Last time when US government finances were stretched during 1944-1952, they went ahead with rapid industrialization –
growing the industrial output by ~60%.

Can that performance be repeated in

Will History Repeat?

Yes, They Are Industrializing

Mexico Boom

Banks And Bank Credit Is Not Even Relevant In Brave New World

This Is Known As Hyperinflation

EMs Have Become DMs

EM Not Following DM On Rate Cycle

Govt Becoming Bigger..Deciding Winners

Indian Govt Is Doing Its Bit

India - Resurgence in Manufacturing

“India’s domestic electronics production has increased significantly from US$29bn in F2015 (1.4% of GDP) to US$105bn in F2023 (3.1% of GDP), reaching ~3% of global electronics Manufacturing. MS sees India’s electronics manufacturing sector growing at a 21% CAGR over the next 10 years (F2022-32) to US$604bn by F2032 (8.6% of GDP)”

Morgan Stanley India

Due to Infrastructure Build Up

India moving from Digital infrastructure (infra.) to Physical infra. build. Digital infra. allowed India to leapfrog Manufacturing directly to services and created an IT and services boom. With Physical infra. push, India is headed for a manufacturing boom.

Rising Capacity Utilization Will Lead To Increase In Capex

India Transitioning From A Service Led Economy To Manufacturing

Macro Theme Of The Decade - Electrification

“In India, it also means adding an equivalent of the European Union’s entire existing grid by 2040.” (Hitachi India)

A recent study by the Energy Transitions Commission, a coalition of companies and financial institutions, found that $1.1tn must be spent on the grid every year until 2050 if the world is to reach its net-zero goal. That is on top of the cost of new generating capacity.

For every dollar invested in renewables another dollar needs to be invested already in grid, transmission and distribution.

Connecting The Dots – Nuclear Energy – The Only Clean, Green And Cheap Energy


GOLD Buying By Central Banks Has Accelerated Since Russia Conflict

Key Takeaway

  • Follow the Government – Follow the Liquidity in this Brave New World
  • US and India both going for “Reindustrialization”
  • Decoupling happening between US and Rest of the world
  • Get ready for Capex boom..Stagflation comes next

It’s Different This Time: Cyclical Changes For 2024


I can be reached at:

Ritesh Jain

Twitter: @riteshmjn



Pine Tree Macro Pvt Ltd (“Pine Tree”): This information provided is for the exclusive and confidential use of the addressee only. Any distribution, use or reproduction of this information without the prior written permission of Pine Tree is strictly prohibited. The information and any material provided in this document or in any communication containing a link to Pine Tree’s website is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Pine Tree to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any material or opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by Pine Tree or its, directors and employees to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. We do not represent that the information and any material provided on this website is accurate or complete. Pine Tree makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information; but makes no representations or warranties, express or implied or assumes any liability for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information contained in this document. All investments are subject to market risks. In no event will Pine Tree or its directors and employees be liable for any damages including without limitation direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising out of and in connection with this website, or in connection with any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus or system failure.

Anantam International SPC Fund (“Fund”) & Aparna Investment Management (“Manager”) : This report does not constitute an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, interests in Anantam International SPC Fund and is not intended to create any rights or obligations
Aparna Investment Management shall not accept any liability if this report is used for an alternative purpose from which it is intended, nor to any third party in respect of this report. While all reasonable care has been taken in preparing this report, no responsibility and liability is acceptable for errors of fact or for any opinion expressed herein
The Anantam International SPC Fund and/or any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees shall not be held liable and responsible for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit, revenue in any way arising from or in connection with the use of this statement in any manner whatsoever.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Anantam International SPC Fund does not provide any assurances as to the reliability of such information and you should not rely on this information when making an investment decision.
Opinions, projections and estimates contained in this report are subject to change without prior notice.

Registered Office

‘LORDS’, 7/1, Lords Sinha Rd., Kolkata, WB,

Branch Office

202, Rajendra Chambers, 19 Nanabhai Lane, Fort,
Mumbai – 400001

Write to us