Pinetree Macro Charts 9 Mar 2024

Nikkei Hit A New All Time High This Week

Strong corporate earnings on top of a weak yen with increased share of corporate revenue coming from overseas operations. Japanese firms are seeing better-than-expected earnings, mainly driven by a higher share of revenue coming from their overseas operations, which benefits from a weak yen. 

This Trade Is Ready To Move Higher Again?

We have been bearish US bonds because of unlimited supply relative to demand and bullish GOLD because of higher demand relative to supply. This chart is of GOLD/TLT and we think that it should continue to move up.

Truck Tonnage Index Shows “Real” Economic Activity

In real terms, the US economy was already contracting and that real wages were declining.

Bitcoin ETF Gross Inflows Hit All-Time Highs.

When Gold went mainstream via ETF then massive flows were reported in GLD ETF. As more money went into GLD, gold prices went parabolic. Bitcoin ETF was launched in January 2024, and we are only repeating the example of GLD.

Inflation Generally Easing Across EMs

Inflationary pressures are easing across EMs following a peak in response to the Ukraine conflict in March 2022. 
This is due to a combination of factors including lower commodity prices, the stabilization or strengthening of EM currencies against the US dollar and other major currencies, tighter monetary policy and more efficient supply chains.


I can be reached at:

Ritesh Jain

Twitter: @riteshmjn



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