Pivotal Point in US Trade History

  • Share of imports from Mexico have overtaken share of imports from China – indicating continuous diversification of US supply chains from China.
  • Canada has been lagging in generating exports to the US even as US continues with its near shoring initiatives.
  • Copper Resurgent

    • Uptick in copper prices expected on the back of Fed pauses on rate hike.
    • We believe this will be a boost to AUD-USD

    US Inflation and Financial Conditions at an inflexion point

    • US inflation has been softening

             –Leading to lowering of bond yields, and;

             –Easier financing conditions

    • We believe this is due to a slowdown in the economy. Unemployment data would be key from here

    Global Trade has been slowing down

    • Global trade has been contracting for a while now
    • This is possible for two reasons:

      – Economic slowdown – more of a cyclical reason
      – Realignment of global supply chains – more of a structural reason

    Uranium – Most Efficient Power Source (Land Usage-Wise)

    • As per a UNECE study commissioned in 2021, Nuclear is the most land-efficient source per MwH
    • Nuclear needs ~70x less land compared to coal power + CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage)


    I can be reached at:

    Ritesh Jain

    Twitter: @riteshmjn

    LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/riteshmjain


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